LSU vs. Houston prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Texas Bowl…
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Between the trajectories of LSU and No. 21 Houston, the Texas Bowl comes with more polarity than the slender margin oddsmakers are hanging.
LSU’s season collapsed under the weight of unmet expectations, a midseason teaching change and a mass roster exodus ahead of the Lane Kiffin period. This version of the Tigers is not going to resemble what was on the subject most of the season.
Garrett Nussmeier is out, forcing Michael Van Buren Jr. into his fourth profession start behind an offensive line that has been reshuffled and was already a part of an offense ranking outdoors the top 100 in early downs EPA per play, go and rush.
Lest we also overlook they didn’t score more than 25 factors against an FBS opponent all season.
Expecting a purposeful offensive leap with this sort of restricted continuity isn’t supported by something LSU has displayed — particularly against a Houston protection that was efficient on early downs and forces opponents into sustaining lengthy drives.
The Cougars sustained stability in Willie Fritz’s second 12 months guiding Houston, enhancing from 5 wins to 9 by means of a low-possession, high-leverage game.
Quarterback Conner Weigman’s announcement that he’ll return in 2026 solidified buy-in, and his manufacturing wasn’t shabby: 2,475 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, plus 644 speeding yards and 11 speeding scores.
LSU quarterback Michael van Buren Jr. (11) places on his helmet before a play against Oklahoma during the first half of an NCAA school soccer game Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025, in Norman, Okla. AP
The Tigers competed with a vicious protection that propelled them to a top-20 unit in EPA per go and rush allowed. There are a laundry record of names lacking from that group right here: Harold Perkins Jr., Whit Weeks, West Weeks, Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy and Jack Pyburn.
Houston averaged 28.3 factors per game after working to the tune of just 14 per game last 12 months.
Betting on College Football?
I’m cautious about how I feel about motivation. If the narrative pulls sufficient weight, then it’s price contemplating. Houston is chasing its first bowl win since 2022, a tenth victory in a breakthrough season, and will get LSU in a digital residence game at NRG Stadium.
It’s robust to stack that up against a Tigers program already turning the web page to 2026.
All of Houston’s wins this season have come by a minimum of three factors, so this quick quantity is engaging. It doesn’t want model factors to cowl; it just merely must be itself.
THE PLAY: Houston -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and school soccer for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that replicate market worth while monitoring developments to mitigate danger.
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