Two risky $30 million musicals are battling on Broadway — ‘Dolly’ and…
The Broadway season doesn’t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play “Paranormal Activity” begins previews at the August Wilson Theatre.
To name the state of new musicals these days alarming can be an understatement. But we already have a scorching early race. Or, nicely, hot-ish.
Of the 4 new musicals that are on sale — “Galileo,” “Wanted,” “Paddington” and “Dolly: A True Original Musical” — there are two apparent pack leaders: The all-American Dolly Parton present and the well mannered British bear adventure from darkest England.
A Dolly Parton bio-musical is coming to Broadway. REUTERS
What’s shocking about that top pair is who’s said to be ahead.
That can be “Dolly,” which, sources said, has an advance of more than $3 million — some $400,000 more than the marmalade-loving scamp, “Paddington.” Others declare the hole is far wider.
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However, another source near “Paddington” refuted that quantity and said it’s neck and neck with “Dolly” at $3 million price of tickets bought.
Who am I to choose a fight with a bear? Even one in a crimson hat.
What’s so left-field about these figures is that “Paddington” is a huge hit in London — one in all the hottest reveals there in years — and is essentially bought out by late September with just scattered seats accessible by the end of the yr. No Broadway musical can say the same. Most are too busy crying on Zoom calls.
I noticed “Paddington” last winter at the Savoy Theatre and adored it. The musical is a sweeter, poppier “Matilda” with spectacular tech.
Then there’s “Dolly.” The country-music present with tunes such as “I Will Always Love You” and “Jolene” was mocked to high heaven after its out-of-town Tennessee tryout last summer season. One spy told me it might be better off “in a drag bar in Vegas.” Viperous critics tellingly weren’t invited down south, and its Broadway bow was delayed.
“Paddington” has been an enormous hit in London. Mike Marsland/WireImage
The scenario would appear to be a clear-cut hit vs. bomb, proper?
Not essentially.
Cuddly “Paddington” is a gigantic danger in NYC.
For one, according to an SEC submitting, “Paddington” is capitalized at a grizzly $31 million, near 2025’s expensive flop “Death Becomes Her.” The hit London manufacturing, a source said, was capitalized at $16.7 million.
That’s awfully costly.
“Barmylade!,” as one shocked wag put it.
And then there’s the model’s strength. The youngsters’s books by Michael Bond aren’t widely read by American youngsters. And their millennial mother and father don’t have any nostalgia for them like the British ones I noticed sobbing of their seats.
“Paddington” is capitalized for $31 million on Broadway. Johan Persson
Recently the fantastic film trilogy has improved the little man’s visibility right here a bit.
Yet the last movie, “Paddington in Peru,” grossed $5 million more in the UK — a nation with one fifth the inhabitants of the US, the place it bought a modest $45.8 million of tickets.
Plus, household reveals are always robust on Broadway. Our profitable household fare tends to both be Disney or for everybody, like “Wicked.” Heck, mother and father of 8-year-olds to this day largely ask me about how they’ll score seats to “Hamilton.”
“Paddington” might want to rapidly show its attraction past the very younger. “Frozen,” big flop, couldn’t handle that.
Johan Persson
Of course, “Paddington” producers Sonia Friedman and Eliza Lumley suppose I’m merely padding column inches. They say their present, which opens in the spring at the Al Hirschfeld, is in hibernation.
“We’re still nine months from our Broadway opening, we haven’t yet launched our campaign, nor have we announced the cast, and we’re very pleased with where we are at this stage,” they collectively said.
“ ‘Paddington’ followed a very similar trajectory in London. Sales accelerated dramatically once previews began — in fact, they exploded — as audiences experienced the show for themselves.”
Hmmm, they’ve definitely performed a little bit more than blast out a press release.
In the leadup to their announcement, the manufacturing blanketed the metropolis with teasing flyers saying “Have you seen this bear?,” in reference to a tense plot point at the end of Act One.
And the character Paddington — who’s carried out by an actress in a swimsuit while an offstage actor operates the face and supplies the kindly voice — appeared on “Good Morning America,” like a furry Matt Damon.
“Paddington” even tried to muscle in on Knicksmania this month in an Instagram video.
“Dolly” has been promoting nicely despite doing little advertising and marketing. Matthew Murphy
“Dolly,” which opens in the winter at the St. James, has performed significantly less.
“A True Original,” produced by Parton and the UK’s Ambassador Theatre Group (which — the drama! — also owns Sonia Friedman Productions), announced its Broadway run with a social media video from Parton only two weeks in the past and went on sale July 10.
There’s been little advertising and marketing spend past that, I’m told. Parton, 80, hasn’t performed any national TV interviews, and her present is promoting nicely anyway, notably with teams.
“Dolly”’s mixed price ticket for its Nashville tryout and New York productions is a hefty $30 million — including $17 million for Broadway. Like “Paddington,” it has an uphill climb.
The musical had tough phrase of mouth after its 2025 tryout in Nashville, Tennessee. Dara-Michelle Farr/AdMedia / SplashNews.com
Parton and her collaborators, sources said, are addressing the gripes from the earlier run. More of her common songs shall be in the first act, and the story received’t be as beat-to-beat biographical as before.
That bitter preliminary phrase of mouth, fortunately for Dolly, doesn’t appear to have wafted far past the gossiping cobras of the theater trade.
“Dolly Parton is a singular figure in our culture,” said British producer Adam Speers of ATG. “There’s nobody else quite like her: her humor, her remarkable empathy and an ability to make everyone feel like they’ve known her their entire lives.”
That’s key. Every American is aware of Dolly of their DNA like she’s a prettier George Washington. But quite a lot of people will should be correctly launched to Paddington and the Brown household for his or her $31 million musical to run the a number of years required to turn into successful.
Friedman and Lumley consider their present can do just that.
“Whilst ‘Paddington’ is set in London, its themes are universal,” they said — tossing in a “st” for good measure. “At its heart it’s a story about kindness, tolerance, acceptance and finding home. Those are values that resonate everywhere.”
I utterly agree. Though it wouldn’t damage if the main character’s title was Simba!
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